Capital Market News: Federal Reserve Raises Rates as Inflation and Oil Prices Stay Elevated — Update Week 38

DJIA: 51,682.64 | NASDAQ: 26,522.55 | S&P 500: 7,650.50 | 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.940% | 30-Year Treasury Yield: 5.290% | Oil / Brent Crude: $103.87 per barrel

U.S. stocks finished the week mixed after a volatile week dominated by the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. On Friday, the Dow fell 0.2%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.4%. For the week, the Dow declined 1.7%, the S&P 500 declined 0.1%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.7%.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest-rate target by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, marking its first rate increase since 2023. The Fed also indicated that another increase could occur later in 2026, depending on inflation and economic conditions.

Treasury yields remained elevated, with the official Federal Reserve data showing the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.94% and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.29% on September 18. Brent crude ended the week at $103.87 per barrel, remaining above $100 despite falling from its midweek highs.

Fixed Income Desk

Treasury Yields Remain Near 5%

The bond market remained under pressure this week as investors adjusted to the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates. The Fed increased its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The decision reflected continued concerns about inflation and the need to move inflation closer to the Fed’s 2% goal.

The 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.94%, while the 30-year yield ended at 5.29%. When Treasury yields rise, borrowing costs can remain elevated for mortgages, business loans, auto loans, credit cards, and other forms of credit.

Takeaway: The Fed raised short-term rates, while longer-term Treasury yields remained high, keeping borrowing costs elevated.

Capital Markets Trend

Title: Banks and Credit Unions

Banks and credit unions are financial institutions that accept deposits, which they use to make loans and investments. Depositors keep their money in these institutions for a variety of reasons, including safety, convenience, and the ability to earn interest. Financial institutions offer a wide range of services to help people manage their money. These services may include checking accounts, savings accounts, credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, mortgages, and other financial products.

The services offered by banks and credit unions are similar, but the two types of institutions have some important differences. Most banks are organized as for-profit corporations. For-profit corporations are owned by shareholders. Banks are regulated by federal and state authorities, depending on the type of bank and its charter. Deposits at FDIC-insured banks are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

Credit unions are member-owned, not-for-profit financial institutions. To open an account, a person generally must meet the credit union’s membership requirements. Credit unions are regulated by federal or state authorities, depending on their charter. Deposits at federally insured credit unions are insured by the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA).

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is an independent agency of the United States government. It protects depositors by providing deposit insurance at FDIC-insured banks. The FDIC was established in 1933 following the banking problems of the Great Depression. Since the FDIC began operations, no depositor has lost money on a deposit within the standard FDIC insurance limits because of a bank failure.

FDIC deposit insurance protects depositors if an FDIC-insured bank fails. When a bank fails, the FDIC generally works to protect insured depositors and may arrange for another bank to assume the failed bank’s deposits and certain other assets. The FDIC insures eligible deposit accounts at participating banks, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs).

The FDIC generally provides insurance of up to $250,000 per depositor, per FDIC-insured bank, for each ownership category. Ownership categories can include single accounts, joint accounts, and certain retirement accounts. FDIC deposit insurance is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.

National Credit Union Administration (NCUA)

The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) is the federal agency that regulates federal credit unions and administers the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund (NCUSIF). The NCUSIF provides federal insurance for deposits, known as shares, at federally insured credit unions.

NCUA share insurance generally provides up to $250,000 of coverage per member-owner, per federally insured credit union, for each ownership category, similar to the standard FDIC insurance limit for bank deposits. The insurance is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.

Common Deposit Accounts

Savings Accounts

A savings account is a deposit account used to set money aside for future needs. Savings accounts generally pay interest on the money deposited into the account. They can be useful for keeping money available while earning some interest.

Checking Accounts

A checking account is a transaction account that allows people to deposit money and access their funds regularly. Checking accounts are commonly used for everyday expenses, such as paying bills, making purchases, and withdrawing cash.

Certificates of Deposit (CDs)

A certificate of deposit (CD) is a deposit account in which money is generally kept for a specific period of time, known as the term. CDs generally pay a specified interest rate for the agreed-upon term. In many cases, a CD may pay a higher interest rate than a traditional savings account. However, withdrawing money before the maturity date may result in an early-withdrawal penalty.

Understanding the differences between banks and credit unions, as well as the types of deposit accounts they offer, can help people make informed decisions about where to keep their money and how to manage their savings.

View From Wall Street

Stocks Recover Friday After a Volatile Week

Wall Street experienced significant movement this week as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s rate increase, oil prices, and Treasury yields. Technology stocks helped the Nasdaq outperform the Dow during the week, while the broader market remained sensitive to changes in interest-rate expectations.

Friday brought some relief as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved higher. Oil prices also eased after reaching nearly $110 per barrel earlier in the week. Brent ultimately finished at $103.87, down 0.7% for the week.

Takeaway: Stocks remained resilient, but higher interest rates and oil prices are creating uncertainty for businesses and investors.

Economic Data Recap

Report What Happened Why It Matters
Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%–4.00%. Higher interest rates can increase borrowing costs and are intended to help reduce inflation.
Retail Sales Retail sales increased 1.2% in August, following a revised 0.5% decline in July. Strong consumer spending shows that household demand remains an important source of economic growth.
Core Retail Sales Retail sales excluding autos and gasoline increased 1.2% in August. Broad-based consumer spending suggests demand remained strong even outside volatile categories.
Jobless Claims Initial unemployment claims fell to 196,000 for the week ending September 12. Lower claims indicate layoffs remained relatively limited.
Housing Starts Housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.275 million in August, from 1.309 million in July. Higher borrowing costs can make it more expensive to build and purchase homes.
Building Permits Building permits declined to 1.394 million in August, from 1.433 million in July. Fewer permits can signal slower future construction activity.
Industrial Production Industrial production was unchanged in August, while manufacturing output declined 0.3%. Higher energy and financing costs are creating challenges for manufacturers.
Treasury Yields The 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 4.94%, while the 30-Year Treasury yield ended at 5.29%. Elevated yields can keep borrowing costs higher for businesses and consumers.
Stock Market The Dow fell 1.7% for the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.7%. Markets remained sensitive to interest rates, oil prices, and expectations for future Fed policy.
Oil Prices Brent crude ended at $103.87 per barrel, down 0.7% for the week after reaching nearly $110 earlier in the week. Oil prices above $100 can increase transportation, production, and household energy costs.

The retail-sales, housing, jobless-claims, and industrial-production data were released during the week of September 14–18.

What Happened This Week

This week’s economic data showed that the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate areas of strength. Retail sales increased 1.2% in August, while initial jobless claims fell to 196,000. However, housing starts and building permits declined, and manufacturing output fell 0.3%.

The biggest market event was the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage point. The Fed moved its target range to 3.75%–4.00% as inflation remained above its 2% goal. Treasury yields stayed elevated, while oil prices remained above $100 per barrel for much of the week.

Simple Takeaway:

The economy continues to show strength in consumer spending and employment, but higher inflation, oil prices, and interest rates are increasing financial pressure on businesses and consumers.



What to Watch Next Week

  • Federal Reserve officials’ comments
  • Oil and energy prices
  • Treasury yields
  • Weekly unemployment claims
  • September business activity surveys
  • Consumer sentiment
  • Durable goods orders
  • Housing and manufacturing activity

Business Financing Takeaway

The Federal Reserve’s rate increase is important for businesses because the cost of borrowing can rise when interest rates increase. Businesses using loans, lines of credit, equipment financing, or other forms of debt may face higher financing expenses.

Higher oil prices can also affect businesses even when they do not borrow money. Transportation, shipping, manufacturing, heating, and other operating costs can increase when energy prices remain elevated.

The bottom line: Businesses need to pay attention not only to the interest rate on a loan but also to how changing interest rates and energy costs can affect the total cost of operating the business.

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